The time came for another GSL vs. The World event. It became a strong point in the StarCraft II history last year when the non-Korean champion Serral defeated everyone making his way to the trophy.
Is he going to beat everyone again? Who else can make big upsets this time? Which stars of StarCraft II to bet on this time? Let’s run throughout the brackets and see!
Participants and the brackets
GSL invites: Classic (P), Maru (T), Dark (Z)
GSL vote winners: Stats (P), Trap (P), FanTaSy (T), TY (T), soO (Z)
The World invites: Neeb (P), SpeCial (T), Serral (Z)
The World vote winners: ShoWTimE (P), HeroMarine (T), Elazer (Z), Reynor (Z)
Round of 16
Dark (1.05) vs. Elazer (6.28) ~ 90/10
I don’t see Dark losing this, but 1.05 is just too low. I think that the starting coefficients were slightly different, but it seems that people were betting on Dark and they were right. Now, however, I would skip it.
TIME (2.98) vs. soO (1.29) ~ 28/72
I think this is the example where the bookmaker’s evaluation works wrong. They use Alligulac stats, but Alligulac can’t consider gameplay stuff, it is about statistics only. So it can’t ‘know’ what an amazing match TIME played against Serral, why soO is struggling in the current meta, it seems. And while he is suffering against Protoss players mostly, I still think that they are about 50/50 now, maybe 40/60 at the highest. So bet on TIME looks like an easy pick. However, you may want to wait until the last moment because other betters can blindly bet on soO (he is an IEM World Champion, right?), so the coefficient will most likely grow up in the remaining hours.
Maru (1.61) vs. Stats (2.04) ~ 57/43
60/40 look nearly how I would estimate the chances in this match, and thus you don’t have to bet on it unless you have a strong reason to put one of the players in a favor.
ShoWTimE (1.85) vs. Neeb (1.75) ~ 48/52
This match is actually about a 50/50, but even though a german Protoss player has a slightly higher coefficient, it doesn’t mean that it would be a good idea to bet on him because you have to remember about a bookmaker’s fee: speaking to the chances, it would cover your profit.
TY (2.74) vs. Serral (1.34) ~ 31/69
You could look obvious that any bet on Serral with a coefficient over 1.3 is a good idea; however, I would think twice before making this particular one. Serral had a hard time playing against TIME in Helsinki just a couple of weeks ago, and TY had a lot of time to watch, analyze, and prepare his strategies. That is why I think bookmaker’s evaluation here is very questionable. In my opinion, it’s an easy ordinary bet on TY here: you are not about to win for sure, but mathematically it would be the correct decision.
HeroMarine (2.88) vs. Trap (1.31) ~ 29/71
HeroMarine is an excellent European Terran player, but it is so unlucky for him to get a player of Trap’s caliber in the first round. I’d say it’s rather 10/90 or even lower for Big Gabe, so you can easily bet on Trap even in a combo.
SpeCial (2.66) vs. Reynor (1.36) ~ 32/68
Honestly, I’m not sure what SpeCial is about to do gameplay-wise. It wasn’t long since the WCS Summer when Reynor crushed him, and I’m just not sure that SpeCial’s way to play TvZ will work against the Italian prodigy. That creates a situation when our knowledge is too weak. I think that a risk-reward is too low in case of betting on Reynor, so you may want to make a single bet on SpeCial or skip this one.
FanTaSy (3.09) vs. Classic (1.27) ~ 27/73
It’s a very tricky match. FanTaSy made his way to the event by a non-stop streaming; otherwise, it would be INnoVation from Korea in this spot. Now 27/73 is about fine, but the problem is that both players are known for their preparation skills. But FanTaSy could hardly conceal anything because of his streams while Classic did not stream at all. We must also consider that the match format is best-of-five. Anyway, TL;DR: keep calm, bet on Classic.
So who will win GSL vs. the World
If I have to call one nickname, I would say Dark. If you let me two, I would add Classic, and only then there will be Maru and Serral. We will see if I am right or wrong very soon; there is still a possibility to watch the dream finals between Maru and Serral. But is it even the case still if neither of them is a reigning champion of their regions anymore?
Whoever will finish GSL vs. the World on top, you can be the winner too if you will do the right calls and bet on the right StarCraft horses.
Best of luck to you and them.